IMF upgrades UK growth but warns on 2027

October 14, 2026

The IMF raised its forecast for growth in 2026 to 1.3%, up from the 1% it predicted in July.

The same report has the economy slowing to 1.2% in 2027, as higher energy prices and long-term interest rates weigh on household spending and business investment.

The IMF credits the resilience to the energy price shock caused by the US- war, but calls the fallout from the conflict "highly uncertain."

The UK is set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the this year, tied with — a ranking that says more about how slowly the whole group is growing than about UK strength.

is finishing the tax and spending plans for his Budget on 28 October, and government , leaving him under pressure to make the plans credible to the markets that lend the UK money.

, the IMF's chief economist, said the UK's debt management now leads the major G7 economies, standing out along with . She said the UK should stay the course.

The IMF expects UK inflation to average 3.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, an increase on its earlier forecast for next year.

, a former deputy governor of the , said the growth forecast was better than it might have been but that 2027 looked more pessimistic. He compared the UK to a slow bicycle race, winning because others are going backwards faster.

Economists have said Healey faces having to find to avoid cuts to public spending while meeting defence promises.

That is the chancellor's hard problem: a Budget due in two weeks, borrowing costs rising, and a gap of £35bn to close without breaking either his spending promises or the market's confidence.

, the Conservative shadow chancellor, said that if Healey reaches for more tax rises in the Budget, he is choosing slower growth and working people will pay for it.

The called on the chancellor to make repairs to the public finances, but said support should be well targeted at those struggling to heat their homes.