The 's monthly , released October 7, 2026, found fewer households expect to be better off a year from now. More reported being worse off than a year ago and expected to be weaker still in the year ahead.
The same survey found consumers expect inflation to run higher a year from now. One-year reached their .
The survey polls a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads.
Gas prices were up nearly 4% in August and more than 27% from August 2025, according to the latest . The national average hit $4.37 a gallon as of October 7, per , up from about $3.12 a year earlier.
A 27% jump in fuel is the mechanism behind the gloom: it eats a bigger share of a lower-income budget than a higher one, and it feeds into the cost of everything that gets trucked to a store.
"This data is just further proof that Americans are worried about inflation getting worse before it gets better," said , chief credit analyst at . He said families on tight budgets expect to make sacrifices and tough choices in the coming months.
, chief economist at , said spending stayed strong in August but income growth is not keeping up. Many people are dipping into savings or using credit to keep spending, which she called not sustainable.
Even as households' own outlook worsened, the survey found income and spending growth expectations both rose.
Both rising at once means households plan to spend more while feeling worse off — the gap can only be closed by borrowing more or drawing down savings.
Analysts at Global Research wrote in an October 1 note that the consumer continues to defy gravity. They said the gas surge could weigh on , hit lower-income households hardest, and feed through to food inflation.